The recent incident reflects an unintentional misstep by Maldives at a delicate juncture in bilateral relations. The extent to which India has adhered to the objectives of its Neighborhood First policy under the new administration remains unclear. 

 In contrast to the previous president’s emphasis on prioritizing “India first” in Maldives’ foreign policy, the electorate has chosen a leader from a different party with a vision to diversify foreign policy options and assert greater independence in security operations. Despite this, President Muizzu has expressed his intention to maintain a close relationship with India, even as his administration concludes Maldives’ aerial security cooperation program with India, challenging the nation’s defense forces to enhance their operational capabilities, including hydrography. 

 This departure from Maldives’ defense policy over the past 15 years signifies a notable shift. While often perceived as a zero-sum, pro-China stance, it may better be understood as a smaller state’s discomfort with the renewed era of strategic competition, a desire to expand partnerships, and a backdrop of heightened nationalism. The evolving security landscape prompts Maldives to develop greater capacity for independent operations in areas such as maritime surveillance, medical evacuation, and hydrography. 

 Despite campaign rhetoric suggesting an “India Out” sentiment, Maldives’ pursuit of greater independence aligns with India’s values of diversification in foreign policy and defense acquisition. This altered scenario presents an opportunity for New Delhi to showcase adaptability in diplomacy and security cooperation under the principles of Neighborhood First and Security and Growth for All in the Region, particularly in dealing with a new political administration in a smaller South Asian neighborhood. 

 However, it remains unclear whether Indian officials are fully aligning with President Muizzu’s post-campaign requests for a redefined partnership. The dispatch of Minister of Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju to Muizzu’s inauguration and the absence of concrete details about India’s receptivity to an early visit indicate potential hesitations. Despite Muizzu’s visits to Turkey and China, the meeting between Modi and Muizzu in December established a core group to discuss bilateral relations, development cooperation, and the request for India to withdraw security personnel by March 15. 

 The upcoming response from New Delhi regarding Muizzu’s visit to India will not only shape the trajectory of bilateral relations but also serve as an indicator of India’s readiness to adapt its Neighborhood First policy to support broader strategic interests. 

 President Muizzu of the Maldives accepted China’s invitation for a state visit, expressing intentions to boost foreign direct investment, trade, and tourism. He announced plans to implement the Maldives-China Free Trade Agreement, a potential milestone. While the visit raised concerns in India over strained ties, it didn’t signal a shift in security dynamics. Key agreements, including those related to the Belt and Road Initiative, focused on cooperation in tourism, fisheries, digital economy, and disaster risk reduction. Notably, no indication of revisiting defense ties, like the joint ocean observation station protocol, emerged, calming security-related anxieties in New Delhi.